A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."