An Alert to Keir Starmer from His Personal History: Without Boldness regarding Britain's EU Exit and the EU, Your Labour Rivals Might Be.

Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.