Aston Villa Defy Gravity Again as Victorious Run Rolls On at Chelsea

It simply cannot go on. It makes no rational sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight encounter at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed improbable, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are vulnerability when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of securing wins on the road from losing positions.

First, the striker equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post following his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the winner with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might believe a bit of luck was due, and there's no question the first goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, however, fortune seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak

Nine of these eleven straight wins were by a single goal. They have kept a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern seems unsustainable, yet observers have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will finally align with their displays or if their level of play can improve to match the points haul.

This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Resilience

Coming from behind is not merely a trait of the current campaign. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those were secured this season, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed nine goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a profound confidence that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at influencing games through his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also came on, bolstering the center and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the changes; following them, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at implementing a tactical plan with time to prepare than adapting on the fly.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring leitmotif. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's not always the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a significant test of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

The Gunners have since put together their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their title credentials.