Balloons from the Belarusian Side Spark Chaos in the Baltic Nation. Criminal Networks or a Covert Warfare Tactic?

On occasions when the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for issues.

That is when giant white balloons are dispatched across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this smuggling operation has compelled Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into suspension 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are convinced they are confronting something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Government Action

The Lithuanian government has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, every night, border units head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Patrols set up mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

For now, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

For now, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."