Behind the Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Bond Which Has Weakened.

The rhetoric and optics from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India projected a robust two-way relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, echoing a known political gesture. In his address, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the India-Russia bond as a "beacon", built on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th visit to India over his 25-year rule and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter took office in 2014.

A Chasm Between Pageantry and Reality

However, a clear disconnect persists between the ceremony and the actual content of this alliance. While Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed a series of agreements covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, anticipated revelations on significant military deals did not come to pass. India has abstained from any substantial defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a trend fueled by holdups in shipments of platforms and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence needs.

A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Influence

This all indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical strategic weight it previously did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential barter arrangements and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a semblance of this close bond through a "special and privileged" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened relations with the West.

Diversification and Underlying Tensions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial links with Moscow. But, as external coercion increases on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the relationship into other areas. On Putin's visit, they unveiled an joint economic program extending until 2030, aiming to make their ties "more diversified, balanced and sustainable". This involves improving entry for Indian products to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers multiple strategically important fields – from space and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Ideological Bonds and Seen Reliability

At an sentimental level, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among senior cohorts of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has translated into a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

This challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive declaration released during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been limited.

Navigating the Dilemma: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This situation does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's international stance. The country is set to conclude a trade deal with the EU, after a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How will India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will succeed, resulting in a end of hostilities and the removal of a major irritant in its ties with the West. But, even if a peace deal is reached, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly continue in Western capitals.